Blogs
The debate over African fertility rates has gained significant attention as the continent contends with rapid population growth and its associated challenges. At the heart of this discussion is whether African countries should pursue policies to achieve replacement-level fertility – the rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from generation to generation, typically around 2.1 children per woman. This question was a central topic at the 9th African Population Conference (APC) in Malawi, where experts, policymakers, and researchers discussed the future of Africa’s demographic landscape.
Africa currently boasts the world’s highest fertility rates, with women having an average of four children over their reproductive lifetime, compared to the global average of two. This high fertility rate has profound implications for the continent’s resource allocation and socioeconomic development. While some African countries such as Mauritius, Seychelles, and South Africa are approaching replacement-level fertility, others maintain significantly higher rates. The discourse surrounding fertility rates in Africa is not merely about numbers; it encompasses complex issues of cultural values, economic aspirations, healthcare systems, and the overall vision for Africa’s future.
The debate centres on whether African countries should actively pursue lowering birth rates or embrace their growing populations as potential economic assets. Proponents of fertility reduction argue that high fertility rates are associated with poor economic development, low living standards, low educational attainment, and high disease burden. They suggest that family planning programmes can help manage rapid population growth, prevent unintended pregnancies, reduce maternal and child mortality, and improve the economic well-being of families and communities. They believe pursuing lower fertility rates could improve economic and social outcomes.
Dr Ben Malunga Phiri, a Member of Parliament in Malawi, and Chairperson of the Southern and Eastern African Parliamentary Caucus on Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights, strongly argued for managing population growth. He highlighted the strain on resources and infrastructure, stating, “Fifty-five babies are born daily at Mangochi District Hospital in Malawi and education standards call for 40 to 60 kids per classroom, even if we have the money, will we build a classroom every day for the pupils and the population to ensure that all the children are not learning under a tree?” He also drew comparisons with nations such as Singapore and Hong Hong with low fertility rates, which are currently enjoying economic success.
Dr Estelle Monique Sidze, a Senior Research Scientist at the African Population and Health Research Centre (APHRC), highlighted that fertility rates in Africa are already on a downward trend. She noted that across the continent, families are increasingly accessing contraceptives and planning their family sizes, contributing to this gradual decline. However, she cautioned that Africa still lacks comprehensive, localised data to effectively plan and manage population changes. “We live on a continent where people can be born and die without a trace of existence,” Sidze remarked, emphasising the critical need for better investment in domestic data systems to guide policy decisions. She stressed that while fertility will continue to decline, reaching replacement-level fertility in the near future is unlikely without adequate planning and resources. Ultimately, Sidze argued that strong plans to manage population growth is essential to enable Africa reap the benefits of its demographic dividend, wherein there are adequate investments in its youth population, enabling the necessary education and opportunities to drive socioeconomic transformation.
Opponents cautioned against actively pursuing lower fertility rates, citing potential negative consequences and emphasising the importance of overall development rather than focusing solely on birth rates.
Prof. Nyovani Madise, Director of Development Policy and Head of Malawi Office at the African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP), argued: “We should not focus on reducing our fertility levels as a continent. Instead, we should focus on education, gender equality and poverty reduction.” Madise used Japan as an example of the challenges faced by countries with very low fertility rates, which had initiated a state birth control programme. She noted that presently, “Japan’s fertility rate is below the replacement level. In 2022, Japan’s population shrunk by half a million, and the country is trying anything to bring fertility back up.”
Prof. Madise also highlighted the relationship between child mortality and fertility in Africa: “It is really difficult for families to think about having only two children if the risk of their child dying is high”. In Africa, the high child mortality rate leads families to often make the choice of having several children to increase the possibility of as many surviving to adulthood. We should therefore focus on the wellbeing and health of women and children, and in doing so, individuals will make informed choices about their family sizes.
Prof. Ayaga Bawah, Senior Lecturer at the Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, warned about the potential negative impacts of population control on the workforce and healthcare systems. He noted that replacement-level sustained for a very long time creates an age structure skewed to the aged, and this shift has implications for health infrastructure of a country. “We already have fragile healthcare systems, and if the continent is not prepared to take care of the aged, it would be another problem affecting the quality of life for Africans.” Prof. Bawah further noted that the skew in the age structure means a limited workforce of young people. There will be enormous pressure on a few people to support a country’s infrastructure and systems, and the reduced productivity of the country could hinder economic growth.
The moderator, Dr Cheikh Mbacké, Regional Consortium for Research on the Generational Economy (CREG), University of Thiès, noted that striking the right balance on fertility is key to harness the demographic dividend of Africa’s young population. And both sides of the debate recognise the complexity of doing so, where cultural values and socioeconomic development intersect. The challenge for African countries is to carefully navigate the potential benefits of slowing population growth while also respecting cultural sensitivities and ensuring that development remains sustainable and beneficial for future generations.
As the continent continues to develop, policymakers face the challenge of navigating this complex demographic landscape. They must consider a range of factors that will shape Africa’s future. The potential economic benefits of a younger, larger workforce present opportunities for rapid economic growth and innovation. However, this must be balanced against the strain on resources and infrastructure caused by rapid population growth, which can lead to challenges in providing adequate education, healthcare, and employment opportunities.
National governments play a critical role in population-related issues, as they control key systems such as education and healthcare, which directly influence fertility rates. More educated populations with access to quality healthcare tend to have fewer children. Policymakers must also consider the long-term consequences of measures to curb population growth, learning from the experiences of countries such as Japan and China, which now face challenges related to aging populations and labour shortages. Balancing these various factors requires nuanced, context-specific approaches that can address the unique circumstances of each African country while working towards sustainable development and improved quality of life for all citizens.